I am sorry to report that the situation has deteriorated since I last spoke to you three days ago. Yesterday afternoon, I was briefed on the latest data showing the virus spreading more rapidly in London, the South East and the East of England than would be expected given the tough restrictions which are already in place.

I also received an explanation for why the virus is spreading more rapidly in these areas. It appears this spread is now being driven by the new variant of the virus, which we first learned about earlier this week. Our advisory group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats – NERVTAG – has spent the last few days analysing the new variant. There is no evidence the variant causes more severe illness or higher mortality, but it does appear to be passed on significantly more easily.

NERVTAG’s early analysis suggests the new variant could increase R by 0.4 or greater. Although there is considerable uncertainty, it may be up to 70% more transmissible than the old variant. This is early data. It is subject to review. It is the best we have at the moment, and we have to act on information as we have it because this is now spreading very fast. The U.K. has by far the best genomic sequencing ability in the world, which means we are better able to identify new strains like this than any other country.